Transport-impacts.com

So we are prisoners of our cars – that’s nothing new. They are part of identity, our debt, our daily life, we give them a room in our houses, we devote a section of our paper to them and some of us even devote our weekends and our water allowance to wash and polish them. The industry is huge and we cannot imagine how a loss in car advertising would affect the operability of our papers and television stations and how the loss in car production would affect employment and the economy. There is no easy escape.

There is another way in which we are like prisoners. The prisoner’s dilemma is all too real when we look at our car driven society.

The commuters in modern society share similar decisions to make when choosing the way they travel. For anyone with a job, a driver’s license and the ability to afford a car, they must decide how to get to and from work. We are all well aware that cars are responsible for many burdens including congestion. It is well recognized that cities with a lower dependence on cars have more efficient transport systems. So what are the outcomes of our decision each morning when we see the car keys, the bike helmet and the train timetable sitting next to each other?

If I choose to drive and all my neighbours take alternative motives, I will get to work the fastest with no problems of parking or congestion, and because I’m the only one driving the other car related problems (air pollution etc.) will only be minor.

If I choose to drive and my neighbours also drive, there will be some congestion and a possibility of parking issues, but at least I will have my own private vehicle and the flexibility it brings. There will however, be a lot of social and environmental problems which the car brings including usage of urban space, pollution, high demands on road infrastructure development, energy consumption and road accidents to name a few. But, I will be sharing these problems with the whole of society, so it’s not all on my shoulders.

However, if I choose to cycle and/or take the train and my neighbours are all taking alternative transport as well, I won’t have to worry about too many cars on the roads while cycling and the cars will have a good awareness of cyclists as there are so many of us. Then, when I am catching the train, the frequency of services will be higher (Mohring effect) and there will be money to invest in better infrastructure and service because there are so many patrons. I might not be quite as fast or have quite the same degree of flexibility but there are other bonuses. All the car related problems no longer exist and we find that our hospitals are freed up with fewer car accident victims, fewer illnesses from air pollution, and fewer obesity-related problems, we also have more land space available, we have less personal financial pressures as we spend less on transport and we are on the way to meeting the Kyoto protocol obligations.

But hang on, if I choose to cycle and/or take the train while all my neighbours are driving this isn’t going to be good. I am firstly going to have to cycle in congested traffic next to all these cars that don’t recognize a bike as a road vehicle, there will be no decent facilities for cyclists and I am risking my life (when I told someone I cycle, they told me that Australian cyclists are temporary Australians). When I try to get the train, I am left waiting 30 minutes on a smelly platform for a rickety train from the 1950’s to take me on the all-stops service (which includes several unscheduled stops due to unforeseen maintenance work, signally problems, miscommunication or maybe a suicide attempt from someone who could no longer waste their life waiting for a train). At least I know I am not polluting but I am certainly putting some extra burdens in my life.

So, just like the prisoners, each commuter adds up the pros and cons of his choices. He looks at his possible outcomes and realizes that his best chance is with the car. While he knows that the best social optimum arises if he and his neighbours all take alternative transport, he runs the risk of having the worst possible commute if his neighbours all choose to drive while he is left weaving through traffic and waiting for the train. This dilemma is compounded by the fact it is not only one other prisoner but a whole city (or a large proportion) who would have to choose alternative transport in order to reach the social optimum. He is doubtful of this. Added to this, is the temporal aspect, the socially optimal conditions are going to take time, infrastructure takes time to build, people attitude to cyclists takes time to change and during this period he may have to cope with some crowded trains and some fowl language from passing cars.

So….. the commuter chooses the car as does his neighbour. The system is pareto sub-optimal and the car continues to dominate our roads. However, there may still be some hope for the bike helmet and the train timetable yet:

• To start with the public transport and cycling conditions in Australian cities are not as bad as the commuter in this story made them out to be.
• There is also the possibility for government to react to the car use epidemic by improving the facility of using alternative transport which reduces the burdens for these commuters and prepares for the extra capacity required for the future (which will quash the temporal aspect as an excuse for not getting out of the car)
• There is also the possibility of peak oil and greenhouse gas abatement financially forcing people out of their cars
• My hope, however, is that we are not like prisoners and we have a sense of social conscience – we choose the path that will eventually lead to a social optimum rather than looking at our immediate option. Unlike the prisoners, there is no single fixed date for the prosecution, we can lead by example and hope that our neighbours will follow tomorrow.